bearhog wroteI believe a realistic scenario would be 4x speed, and 4x quota, and the price of each extra GB would be a fourth. This isnt even close to what we would expect if we are to properly enter the information age (stream HD movies, big downloads from steam, mac app store etc), but as long as there is no competition, then there is not reason to make the internet dirt cheap. Just make it cheap enough..
I hope i am wrong.
Part of me says you are going to be right, but it is too simple to be right. People who make policies, not just here, but all over the world, want to give the impression that they are smart and know what they are doing. The US tax code for example is over 17,000 pages and there is not one person dead or alive that knows much about it.
Back on topic, the wild card here is the price drop on E1 lines. Right now, it is over $2600 and it is expected to drop to $300--that's over 88% (let's say 90 to make things easier). On a 512 Ogero connection, it is 77,000 LL or $51.33 with 4up/4down. The cost of gig is 51.33/8 or $6.42. Down knock down the cost by 90%, or 10% and each unit becomes 64 cents. Doing the math, they should be giving us 40up/40down for the same price, but they may decrease it because they are raising the speed by 4x.
If my 512 connection become a 2meg connection with 40down, I wouldn't be entirely unhappy. It is a good start anyway.