LebGeeks

Kareem

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Bank Audi are "offering" anyone who deposits fresh dollars to be converted to "lollars" multiplied by 2.1, BUT capital controls will then apply.

Deposit 1000 USD x 2.1 = 2100 lollars :)

Lebanese genius marketing reached new heights.

Getting them 2100 × 3000 = 6,300,000 LBP & flipping them back to USD in the black market is a good manoeuvre I can do. It will not each a 6000 rate suddenly. Plan B, is closing a debt or give some a Cheque Boncuire @ 2100 USD ( Quick Example: Ordering items from Amazon through  Shipped.io,  they do accept a bank cheque.

6,300,000 / 5000 (Assume the rate reaches 5000) = 1260 USD , a good 260 USD.

It is a smart move from Audi to get USD from people @ giving them LBP @ approximately 6000 Rate vs the current black market. Hopefully it will be a one two day flip , no maturity days applies as the LBP  rapidly losing against USD.

Monday I will call Audi. If everything is clear , I will deposit 10,000 USD fresh money.

I don't recommend you put any cash $$ at any Lebanese bank no matter their offer, can't you see what they have been doing for the past 6 month? how can you still trust them!
fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me

Although the x 2.1 is confirmed news. news concerning being able to withdraw them at 3,000 is not yet accurate.
Always remember that any deal you make with any bank is always in benefit to the bank. So think about it, why would Bank Audi do this and not just buy cash USD from a sarraf at 4,000 instead?

Confirmed from insiders, rate would be 1515 LL not 2600, 3000 or anything in this range.

Tech Guru

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Shipped.io accepts a USD bank cheque? that's weird!

m0ei

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Thanks, at what exchange rate? given that they price in LBP.

Tech Guru

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Thanks, at what exchange rate? given that they price in LBP.

They are usually ~ 13 to 15 % Less than the current market rate. Worst case scenario for today , as an example,  3900 (0.87) ~ 3400. On the flip side, Libazon prices are lower.

Last edited by Tech Guru (April 26 2020)

Tech Guru

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Getting them 2100 × 3000 = 6,300,000 LBP & flipping them back to USD in the black market is a good manoeuvre I can do. It will not each a 6000 rate suddenly. Plan B, is closing a debt or give some a Cheque Boncuire @ 2100 USD ( Quick Example: Ordering items from Amazon through  Shipped.io,  they do accept a bank cheque.

6,300,000 / 5000 (Assume the rate reaches 5000) = 1260 USD , a good 260 USD.

It is a smart move from Audi to get USD from people @ giving them LBP @ approximately 6000 Rate vs the current black market. Hopefully it will be a one two day flip , no maturity days applies as the LBP  rapidly losing against USD.

Monday I will call Audi. If everything is clear , I will deposit 10,000 USD fresh money.

I don't recommend you put any cash $$ at any Lebanese bank no matter their offer, can't you see what they have been doing for the past 6 month? how can you still trust them!
fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me

Although the x 2.1 is confirmed news. news concerning being able to withdraw them at 3,000 is not yet accurate.
Always remember that any deal you make with any bank is always in benefit to the bank. So think about it, why would Bank Audi do this and not just buy cash USD from a sarraf at 4,000 instead?

Confirmed from insiders, rate would be 1515 LL not 2600, 3000 or anything in this range.

So basically If I deposit 10,000 USD:

10000× 2 = 20000 USD

Either
20,000 USD no withdraw but a Bank  Cheque ( Boncuire) 

Or

20,000 USD ×1515 =  30,300,000 LBP Withdraw

Therefore , they are taking the 10000 USD at a rate of  3,030

May you please ask your insider & vetify that to me.

VincentKeyboard

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

I will fire employees or keep them at 1500LL salaries instead of losing my precious 50k per month

At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at  1500LBP.

Johnaudi

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at  1500LBP.

That solution wouldn't work as companies will simply not sell at a loss and would rather keep something that retains its value (such as the stock they're selling)

The only solution is foreign aid, which is not possible anytime soon, especially with the Riad Salameh-related offenses happening lately. This is indeed a tragedy-comedy.

nuclearcat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

I will fire employees or keep them at 1500LL salaries instead of losing my precious 50k per month

At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at  1500LBP.

Increasing salaries will increase hyperinflation, your money will depreciate faster than salary increase.

Forcing people to sell 1500LL wont work. I shortened this economical lesson, had to explain woman in shop, who was ranting near the cat food stand:
"If i bought from outside 100 cat food boxes, $1 each, and i sell to people for 1500LL. Then i will go to sarraf to get money for new shipment, how much $ i will get?
People happy, i'm broke."

The reality is that if we do not wake up, reduce import (esp. luxury items) and wont start exporting something to get $$, then we will all eat the veggies and dirt(because there is not enough arable land even to cover internal foodstuff needs).
This is harsh reality, REAL purchasing power of majority, without spending expats money in banks - not enough even for daily food.
Purchasing power is equal to exported product value you create. If you toss papers at your work from one shelf to another - your purchasing power is near zero now.
Service sector is over, it was clear since start of syrian war. Agriculture, manufacturing - is everything.

And to be honest, at current moment import policies are bad (unpredictable overtaxing at customs for small shipments) - small manufacturing doomed and not competitive.
I personally set myself the task - to start producing something, even with losses, and then raise the question about this.
And if there is no dialogue, god save those who harm manufacturing (evil smile).

Last edited by nuclearcat (April 26 2020)

Tech Guru

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Here You Go , Lebanon has officially joined the hyper inflation club. LBP is losing its purchasing power very rapidly. Poverty & starvation spiral lunched. With no control , long term plans , shift to a productive economy , retrieval of robbed money , and no injection of foregin help (debt) .. More black days to come. Be Prepared 

Last edited by Tech Guru (April 26 2020)

kareem_nasser

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

I will fire employees or keep them at 1500LL salaries instead of losing my precious 50k per month

At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at  1500LBP.

Increasing salaries will increase hyperinflation, your money will depreciate faster than salary increase.

Forcing people to sell 1500LL wont work. I shortened this economical lesson, had to explain woman in shop, who was ranting near the cat food stand:
"If i bought from outside 100 cat food boxes, $1 each, and i sell to people for 1500LL. Then i will go to sarraf to get money for new shipment, how much $ i will get?
People happy, i'm broke."

The reality is that if we do not wake up, reduce import (esp. luxury items) and wont start exporting something to get $$, then we will all eat the veggies and dirt(because there is not enough arable land even to cover internal foodstuff needs).
This is harsh reality, REAL purchasing power of majority, without spending expats money in banks - not enough even for daily food.
Purchasing power is equal to exported product value you create. If you toss papers at your work from one shelf to another - your purchasing power is near zero now.
Service sector is over, it was clear since start of syrian war. Agriculture, manufacturing - is everything.

And to be honest, at current moment import policies are bad (unpredictable overtaxing at customs for small shipments) - small manufacturing doomed and not competitive.
I personally set myself the task - to start producing something, even with losses, and then raise the question about this.
And if there is no dialogue, god save those who harm manufacturing (evil smile).

As i said before we are still in denial. Some are still planning their travel plans this year as the rate will be back to 1500, others planning their weddings, or how to manage their nonexistent bank dollars (lollars). Give it some time and they will see you are right 100%.

If things are back, people need to know the magic which intervened. :)

NuclearVision

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if things were back like before. Why? Because it happened so suddenly, someone closed the usd tap, and that's for a reason, I hope they're figuring out the solution for this reason.

nuclearcat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

As i said before we are still in denial. Some are still planning their travel plans this year as the rate will be back to 1500, others planning their weddings, or how to manage their nonexistent bank dollars (lollars). Give it some time and they will see you are right 100%.

If things are back, people need to know the magic which intervened. :)

Unfortunately covid, protests made famine too close. I am afraid we dont have time...

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if things were back like before. Why? Because it happened so suddenly, someone closed the usd tap, and that's for a reason, I hope they're figuring out the solution for this reason.

You are in denial. Lebanon is Cessna with broken fuel tank meter, everybody onboard happy and didnt noticed they passed 440km range, while max range 450km for this plane, they just watch fuel tank meter, and it still shows "full".
Your engine is already starting to sneeze and stopping, altutude is dropping, and you still thinking that it will work back normal on magic fumes?
If you have at least a drop of common sense - look for a place for emergency landing.
P.S. Pilots are with parachutes. They are not worried much about fuel, even might be in denial, but just because they can jump at any moment out and they wont die. So if you listen to them, remember, you dont have parachute, they have.

Last edited by nuclearcat (April 26 2020)

vengeance666

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Things can go back to normal in the long term, get better slowly on short medium term IF the government/BDL have some sort of will for it and IF they take some "manly" decisions without having to be worried about everybody's feelings (especially others in positions of power). But based on the crap that's been going on lately, Salame's ridiculous decisions that don't make any sense, I doubt this will have a happy ending. Politics and sheep mentality are still dominating people's brains even after all what happened since October until today. Lebanese people refuse to change an inch of their toxic behavior in their daily lives (a corrupt society leads to a corrupt leadership not vice versa). This country is a literal free for all where everyone does what ever the hell pleases them. A jungle with streets and buildings. Sorry but this is just the harsh truth, and no things will not get better unless some magic happens (a real revolution, some source for dollars into the market).

Last edited by vengeance666 (April 26 2020)

eWizzard

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

To avoid a Venezuela scenario, an IMF bailout seems to be the only viable option left for us. And yet, parliament majority opposes the idea.

xazbrat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

To avoid a Venezuela scenario, an IMF bailout seems to be the only viable option left for us. And yet, parliament majority opposes the idea.

That's going to change soon (I hope).  Up until now, there has not been a rescue plan presented 80 days into the new government's term except for don't pay the Eurobonds.  I saw a blurb on Bloomberg that they wanted to gradually reduce the peg to 2600 to the dollar sometime in 2021, but it seems that plan will go out the window.  Unless a viable plan is presented soon, IMF will be the only option available which will make many in parliament unhappy, but I do think a shock to the system here is needed.

Edit:  Here is Bloomberg article

Last edited by xazbrat (April 26 2020)

infiniteloop

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

It's time they stop completely the apps about ''real'' Lbp value, it's real poison as long as it's not based on official exchange rate, only pure black market mafia dudes are giving fake numbers and others are following while all the country is going to hell
They are covered or not by politicians, Diab should arrest these apps ASAP if we don't want to see our country burn

nuclearcat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Arrest apps? Seriously? :)
At current moment Lebanon cannot even block properly some websites, MoT issue regulation/order, and their own hand, Ogero and mobile operators - doesn't comply.
Another thing.
Disinformation can be fought only by refuting, using facts, and creating a source with reliable information.
And, for example, when the market is unstable - just write about it, inform that it is better to not exchange at moment, and refrain from publishing any exchange rates.

NuclearVision

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

A new bdl circular is circulating obligating exchange houses to sell usd at 3200 max

vengeance666

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

A new bdl circular is circulating obligating exchange houses to sell usd at 3200 max

Yeaaaa sure, they will abide just like they did the last 200 times BDL published a circular. Especially after they bought all these dollars the past week for 3500+ .. They will gladly sell at a loss :)

Last edited by vengeance666 (April 26 2020)

NuclearVision

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

I don't know but it seems different this time

Kareem

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

You probably noticed that the whole thing is a setup by BDL... Didn't you?

NuclearVision

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

I remember that the last circular related to exchange price was  vague, and referred to usd buying prices.
this one is more straight forward.
We shall wait and see.
Cheers!

VincentKeyboard

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

I will fire employees or keep them at 1500LL salaries instead of losing my precious 50k per month

At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at  1500LBP.

Increasing salaries will increase hyperinflation, your money will depreciate faster than salary increase.

Forcing people to sell 1500LL wont work. I shortened this economical lesson, had to explain woman in shop, who was ranting near the cat food stand:
"If i bought from outside 100 cat food boxes, $1 each, and i sell to people for 1500LL. Then i will go to sarraf to get money for new shipment, how much $ i will get?
People happy, i'm broke."

So go broke. No one forced you to assign prices in USD.
Let's say I have a company called Haddad Chicken. I make chicken products. If I insist on distributing them at dollar prices, eventually no one will afford to buy my products. Sure I can lose sales profit at LBP but it's not the end of the world.
And for your information, this is exactly how this situation was fixed 30 years ago. They soft-banned trading in US dollars and the economy became great. By the mid 90s, people would stalk you to offer you jobs.
When I was 17, I was offered a chance to manage a chain of coffee shops. I said no because I chose to go to university instead. You could find a job at 11PM on a Sunday evening back then.
Your explanation is accurate according to text books but does not apply to Lebanon's real life situation.
But my ideas are exactly what fixed this issue the last time it happened.
We need to separate the dollar from the LBP and stop assigning prices by the dollar. Even at large losses to companies, it needs to happen. They put themselves in this situation by choosing to trade locally by USD. No one forced them to do so and they are not suffering from it.
My statement is the only verified-to-work solution.
There is no excuse for greed and no excuse for Lebanon not to be manufacturing many things and setting prices that are independent of the US dollar.

Last edited by VincentKeyboard (April 27 2020)

rolf

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Good luck trying to pay international suppliers in LBP.

vengeance666

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at  1500LBP.

Increasing salaries will increase hyperinflation, your money will depreciate faster than salary increase.

Forcing people to sell 1500LL wont work. I shortened this economical lesson, had to explain woman in shop, who was ranting near the cat food stand:
"If i bought from outside 100 cat food boxes, $1 each, and i sell to people for 1500LL. Then i will go to sarraf to get money for new shipment, how much $ i will get?
People happy, i'm broke."

So go broke. No one forced you to assign prices in USD.
Let's say I have a company called Haddad Chicken. I make chicken products. If I insist on distributing them at dollar prices, eventually no one will afford to buy my products. Sure I can lose sales profit at LBP but it's not the end of the world.
And for your information, this is exactly how this situation was fixed 30 years ago. They soft-banned trading in US dollars and the economy became great. By the mid 90s, people would stalk you to offer you jobs.
When I was 17, I was offered a chance to manage a chain of coffee shops. I said no because I chose to go to university instead. You could find a job at 11PM on a Sunday evening back then.
Your explanation is accurate according to text books but does not apply to Lebanon's real life situation.
But my ideas are exactly what fixed this issue the last time it happened.
We need to separate the dollar from the LBP and stop assigning prices by the dollar. Even at large losses to companies, it needs to happen. They put themselves in this situation by choosing to trade locally by USD. No one forced them to do so and they are not suffering from it.
My statement is the only verified-to-work solution.
There is no excuse for greed and no excuse for Lebanon not to be manufacturing many things and setting prices that are independent of the US dollar.

What really fixed it 30 years ago was simply the government issuing shit ton of bonds in 1998. Well we are here today because of that. That's how all the debt started, and well the money wasn't used for anything productive to cover the debts made in the first place (for the love of God nobody please say downtown was rebuilt because that is half the problem). In 2002 where they couldn't build up more debt, Salame came with his magical plans who work on short term but again look where we are now. 30 years and nobody could even complete a simple task: Electricity and an effective collection system. Half the problem is EDL building up shit tons of debt for fuel importing etc .. Note that the dollar reached 3000 LBP back in 1998, exchange rate totally crashed in 91 I guess. The economy wasn't dollarized but still.

Last edited by vengeance666 (April 27 2020)