LebGeeks

beezer

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

The exchanges are playing however they want. Pretty much two or three exchanges are the ones that control this rate how they please.

xazbrat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Don't forget that we're close to the beginning of the month. A lot of people have debts and need to pay in LBP, so people are selling USD to pay less.

This is very temporary and the USD will go even higher starting from the 4th of december ( my own speculation )

It was not popular on the street, but paying that $1.5 Billion Eurobond today was important financially.  It may have also lowered the risk of default and also the value of the dollar.  Of course, tomorrow is another day and another story....

But I don't think it means anything. Since the total USD ( liquid cash ) is lower day after day since no money is being transferred from abroad and you need to import, the demand will be consistent.

We managed to pay a $1.5 billion today however it's always been the case. We have another commitment in April 2020 so don't expect things to change dramatically.

Confidence is fleeting, and it was an unknown given what has been going on, but it helped.  Like I said, tomorrow is another day.

I am surprised that the central bank hasn't done more to increase the trade supply of USD though--maybe not give them out in ATM's, but at least let merchants buy goods since much of stuff here is imported, and it is near the end of the year when many merchants depend on this season to survive.   I have noticed a lot of stuff in supermarkets isn't around anymore because they are unable to order them.  Also, I was at a small health food store the other day and asked if I could use a credit card---the person behind the counter said they stopped using the credit card machines because they couldn't access the cash.

Now that is just plain dumb by both their bank and the central bank..

Kareem

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

My friend was able to transfer 80,000 USD few days ago to brazil ( blom bank ) . They will let you import if you bring cash money. Anything in your account before the crisis can't be touched.

beezer

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Also, I was at a small health food store the other day and asked if I could use a credit card---the person behind the counter said they stopped using the credit card machines because they couldn't access the cash.

Now that is just plain dumb by both their bank and the central bank..

Honestly this thing really upsets me, if everyone has a bank account and a credit card/debit card then there would be no problem as the money is still internal, but a lot of employees are off the books and a lot of places don't have legitimate business to use corporate bank accounts which creates this problem.

NuclearVision

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

@kareem, why do i keep hearing that there's no usd flow from abroad? why not? I mean what changed in one month? People abroad decided to stop supporting their families?

IMO, it's a game so that people panic and buy Usd with high prices, the same is(was) being done with fuel.
Who's making profits? You guessed it, the banks! Why? because they're supplying minutes amount of usd, and large amount when needed to feed their game.
This is just my theory, i could be wrong, but again, things such as this can't happen between day and night, like it has happened.

Kareem

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

@kareem, why do i keep hearing that there's no usd flow from abroad? why not? I mean what changed in one month? People abroad decided to stop supporting their families?

IMO, it's a game so that people panic and buy Usd with high prices, the same is(was) being done with fuel.
Who's making profits? You guessed it, the banks! Why? because they're supplying minutes amount of usd, and large amount when needed to feed their game.
This is just my theory, i could be wrong, but again, things such as this can't happen between day and night, like it has happened.

It's not that USD flow stopped completely however, I'm pretty sure it's much lower.

I can tell you from personal experience, when people abroad used to send money, they were either using western union or bank transfers.

Since WU isn't paying in USD anymore and banks won't let you withdraw the money you have unless in limited quantities it created panic.

People working abroad ( expats etc.. ) who were transferring money to their bank in Lebanon because of high interest panicked as well and  opened bank accounts in the country they're in.

Investments as well are almost non-existent.

nuclearcat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

@kareem, why do i keep hearing that there's no usd flow from abroad? why not? I mean what changed in one month? People abroad decided to stop supporting their families?

IMO, it's a game so that people panic and buy Usd with high prices, the same is(was) being done with fuel.
Who's making profits? You guessed it, the banks! Why? because they're supplying minutes amount of usd, and large amount when needed to feed their game.
This is just my theory, i could be wrong, but again, things such as this can't happen between day and night, like it has happened.

IMO, much more than people was supporting families, people was sending large part of salaries to keep in Lebanese banks (often with interest).
Now no more trust in financial system, so...

NuclearVision

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

it makes sense. I hope things get better.

rolf

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

no money is being transferred from abroad and you need to import, the demand will be consistent.

Not really, demand will go down for many reasons: building projects stopped, companies going bankrupt, people preferring local to imported / luxury items.

Last edited by rolf (November 29 2019)

Kareem

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

no money is being transferred from abroad and you need to import, the demand will be consistent.

Not really, demand will go down for many reasons: building projects stopped, companies going bankrupt, people preferring local to imported / luxury items.

With all due respect very little is 100% local; more than 90% of raw materials are being imported... Wood, plastic, cotton, fruits, legumes, meat, wheat, steel, fuel,oil,coffee etc...

Even farmers were threatening  to stop supplying the market with milk because the silage is imported and they want to get paid in USD.

Cedars cigarettes are made in Lebanon but the pack price almost doubled. I asked someone from the Regie about the reason and the answer was that the filter is made of imported material.

We're experiencing a hyperinflation and for many, the only way to survive is the USD hence the consisting demand,

rolf

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

But we do produce locally.

Last edited by rolf (November 29 2019)

VincentKeyboard

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

1) Even if Cedars price went up by 500LL, did the filter price really go up by 500LL? And even if it did, why not manufacture them locally?
2) There are two types of cow meat in Lebanon. Local which is sold for 12 to 18k LL a KG. Brazilian which is imported frozen for negligible prices and some butchers were selling it frozen for as low as 8k a KG and now it is up to 12k. I very much doubt the dollar increase warrants that because the import cost was low to begin with and they can still make good profit from selling it at old prices. This is according to my butcher who stopped selling Brazilian meat because customers complained about the lack of taste compared to local cow meat.
3) Legumes and fruit are also produced in Lebanon and so is wood. I know of Maarawi wood. We don't need to import those. The issue with farmers is that they are being screwed over by marketers. The distributors who sell at wholesales prices to local shops make more profit than farmers.

Anyway, the best way to fix this is to bring down the dollar price back to 1500LL and increase wages again so people can afford to settle their bills at old US dollar value. If you have a decade experience in a domain, don't settle for 1,000,000LL only. If someone can't afford to pay you enough to live by, it's likely they are not running a sustainable business and you may not have a job there in 5 years to begin with. it's as simple as that.

Last edited by VincentKeyboard (November 29 2019)

nuclearcat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

You can't increase salaries. Purchase power of Lebanon is overrated, this is reason of current financial crisis. To increase purchasing power - you need to make real stuff for export and consume more internally manufactured products (where significant % of value made in Lebanon).
Lebanon heavily depends on import, and major spending part of each person living in Lebanon is import stuff, so if you increase salary you just drain your country foreign currency reserves and aggravate situation.

kareem_nasser

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

You can't increase salaries. Purchase power of Lebanon is overrated, this is reason of current financial crisis. To increase purchasing power - you need to make real stuff for export and consume more internally manufactured products (where significant % of value made in Lebanon).
Lebanon heavily depends on import, and major spending part of each person living in Lebanon is import stuff, so if you increase salary you just drain your country foreign currency reserves and aggravate situation.

Since many have visited Turkey, you can easily see the above being applied there. Any local snack brands (e.g Eti and Ulker) are sold fairly at a lower price compared to say, Mondelez International brands for example.

Nuc has pinpointed an issue we had for decades which was rarely addressed and it is a big factor current state of things. All we want is personal gain and we become greedy, just how clearly things are with FX LBP-USD.

VincentKeyboard

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

You can't increase salaries. Purchase power of Lebanon is overrated, this is reason of current financial crisis. To increase purchasing power - you need to make real stuff for export and consume more internally manufactured products (where significant % of value made in Lebanon).
Lebanon heavily depends on import, and major spending part of each person living in Lebanon is import stuff, so if you increase salary you just drain your country foreign currency reserves and aggravate situation.

Do remember that there are many people in their late 20s working 10 hours a day for 400 USD. Many of those used to work for 600 to 700 USD before the influx of Syrians. I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar price increase was that so people would make the most of their little salaries.
I know an accounting firm in Hamra that has two ladies working from 8:30AM till 4PM for 300 USD. That's not even enough for transportation and food. What if they want to recharge their phones or get an internet connection? What if they need to pay house rent?
There was a phone store somewhere near Books and pens a while ago that wanted to hire someone for 50,000LL a week. No one can live on that.
Fahed supermarket wanted a kitchen chef for 600,000LL to work for 12 hours a day. A restaurant in nakkash after antelias was looking for waiters and delivery people without a salary. He said "you salary is 25% of any tips you get".
Mattar jewelry who has shops in kaslik, kuwait, and dubai is paying 400 USD a month to a lady accountant who works from 8AM till 5PM.
One coffee shop I know is looking for baristas for a 100 dollars a month.

No one dared to try to pull off this crap two years ago. This is the real problem.

Last edited by VincentKeyboard (November 29 2019)

Kareem

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

1) Even if Cedars price went up by 500LL, did the filter price really go up by 500LL? And even if it did, why not manufacture them locally?

Because they are taking advantage ot it.

3) Legumes and fruit are also produced in Lebanon and so is wood. I know of Maarawi wood. We don't need to import those. The issue with farmers is that they are being screwed over by marketers. The distributors who sell at wholesales prices to local shops make more profit than farmers.

The supply isn't enough begin with; you also need enough water, import pesticides etc...

I'm doing my apartment and I was talking to my carpenter; there's no local wood in Lebanon, not even MDF. There used to be. 25 years ago ( Ghandoor ) but ever since the war, it's being imported. Even Raymond Maarawi doesn't have local wood, he's trading.

That's why my carpenter is asking for USD instead of LBP.

Anyway, the best way to fix this is to bring down the dollar price back to 1500LL and increase wages again so people can afford to settle their bills at old US dollar value. If you have a decade experience in a domain, don't settle for 1,000,000LL only. If someone can't afford to pay you enough to live by, it's likely they are not running a sustainable business and you may not have a job there in 5 years to begin with. it's as simple as that.

What do you mean by increase wages ? I don't agree with you at all as it will cause more inflation. You do realize that the "سلسلة الرتب والرواتب " was a huge mistake and detrimental to the economy since the idiots ruling the country didn't really plan for it the right way.

Look at the tuition fees, everything got more expensive.  You can't bring the dollar back to 1500 LL if you DON'T HAVE ENOUGH LIQUID CASH and if you can't control the USD outflow.

A very funny scenario is that our concierge salary is $600 USD which is equivalent now to 1,300,000 LL whereas my friend's sister who's  graduated from LAU two years ago is making 1,150,000 LL  a month at Blom Bank.

That's the chaos and that's why people are taking advantage of the situation to increase the prices even more because they feel they are  making less money than they used to.

Last edited by Kareem (November 29 2019)

VincentKeyboard

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Kareem, I'm not asking to increase the wages of people who earn 600 dollars or 800 dollars or higher. But the people who are earning 200,000LL to 500,000LL really should be paid more. There are people who literally living on a 1000LL mankoosheh a day for food and a lot of those were doing much better in 2016. Those people deserve higher salaries as they are the most affected by the increase in prices.

I know a guy called anthony (I have his permission to post this here). He worked at a well known bread maker brand for years before losing his job to budget cuts. Now he works as delivery for a manakeesh store for the occasional tip and then uses his tips to buy manakeesh and spinach pies at 4PM when the manakeesh store closes.
Then he waits tables at night at a coffee place which covers his half the rent of his shared apartment.

Last edited by VincentKeyboard (November 29 2019)

kareem_nasser

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

You can't increase salaries. Purchase power of Lebanon is overrated, this is reason of current financial crisis. To increase purchasing power - you need to make real stuff for export and consume more internally manufactured products (where significant % of value made in Lebanon).
Lebanon heavily depends on import, and major spending part of each person living in Lebanon is import stuff, so if you increase salary you just drain your country foreign currency reserves and aggravate situation.

Do remember that there are many people in their late 20s working 10 hours a day for 400 USD. Many of those used to work for 600 to 700 USD before the influx of Syrians. I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar price increase was that so people would make the most of their little salaries.
I know an accounting firm in Hamra that has two ladies working from 8:30AM till 4PM for 300 USD. That's not even enough for transportation and food. What if they want to recharge their phones or get an internet connection? What if they need to pay house rent?
There was a phone store somewhere near Books and pens a while ago that wanted to hire someone for 50,000LL a week. No one can live on that.
Fahed supermarket wanted a kitchen chef for 600,000LL to work for 12 hours a day. A restaurant in nakkash after antelias was looking for waiters and delivery people without a salary. He said "you salary is 25% of any tips you get".
Mattar jewelry who has shops in kaslik, kuwait, and dubai is paying 400 USD a month to a lady accountant who works from 8AM till 5PM.
One coffee shop I know is looking for baristas for a 100 dollars a month.

No one dared to try to pull off this crap two years ago. This is the real problem.

Add to this those who work 2 jobs. :)

rolf

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

Restaurants are empty, all business has gone way down.

Last edited by rolf (November 29 2019)

nuclearcat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

You can't increase salaries. Purchase power of Lebanon is overrated, this is reason of current financial crisis. To increase purchasing power - you need to make real stuff for export and consume more internally manufactured products (where significant % of value made in Lebanon).
Lebanon heavily depends on import, and major spending part of each person living in Lebanon is import stuff, so if you increase salary you just drain your country foreign currency reserves and aggravate situation.

Do remember that there are many people in their late 20s working 10 hours a day for 400 USD. Many of those used to work for 600 to 700 USD before the influx of Syrians. I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar price increase was that so people would make the most of their little salaries.
I know an accounting firm in Hamra that has two ladies working from 8:30AM till 4PM for 300 USD. That's not even enough for transportation and food. What if they want to recharge their phones or get an internet connection? What if they need to pay house rent?
There was a phone store somewhere near Books and pens a while ago that wanted to hire someone for 50,000LL a week. No one can live on that.
Fahed supermarket wanted a kitchen chef for 600,000LL to work for 12 hours a day. A restaurant in nakkash after antelias was looking for waiters and delivery people without a salary. He said "you salary is 25% of any tips you get".
Mattar jewelry who has shops in kaslik, kuwait, and dubai is paying 400 USD a month to a lady accountant who works from 8AM till 5PM.
One coffee shop I know is looking for baristas for a 100 dollars a month.

No one dared to try to pull off this crap two years ago. This is the real problem.

Businesses are paying salaries they can afford to pay. This is two sided coin, at one side if you force them artificially to increase salaries, they might just prefer to close or they wont be competitive anymore.
You can afford "social" country when your economy is at good shape. If it is not good, it will go to "quazi-liberal", just to keep businesses working. The only way to protect worker rights in such environment is unions.

At same time, other side of coin, i noticed many businesses, especially supermarkets, hire asian helpers to pack the bags, while i know many those who are totally out of job was relying on this income. And not only that is bad they took jobs of Lebanese, also this money will flow out of country as remittances to their countries. And i am seeing only surface of the problem, i am sure there is much more such cases. This is absolutely unacceptable.
P.S. I am foreigner worker as well, but i doubt someone can outperform me in my field in Lebanon and in some areas of expertise i'm alone totally, and i keep all earned money here, in Lebanon. So i am not a bee protesting against the honey :)

Last edited by nuclearcat (November 29 2019)

rolf

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

IMO, when the economy is not in shape is when a social system is needed most. When 30% of the population are jobless and struggling, and 1% are billionnaires, it is very bad for social cohesion and stability, and for economy in the long term.
It is better to take from the 1% to support the needy.
However of course it is much better to start and prepare when the economy is doing fine.

nuclearcat

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

IMO, when the economy is not in shape is when a social system is needed most. When 30% of the population are jobless and struggling, and 1% are billionnaires, it is very bad for social cohesion and stability, and for economy in the long term.
It is better to take from the 1% to support the needy.
However of course it is much better to start and prepare when the economy is doing fine.

You can't have better social system, if your government don't have money to pay even for existing, not so social services.
And you can't just take money of rich and divide between poor, it is socialism and it always fails.
Remember what happened when France tried to do so: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … rance.html

infiniteloop

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

1600LL / $ just asked moneygram changer

samer

Admin

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

An update from http://lebaneselira.org, which usually gets self-reported numbers from ~1000 people in a telegram group.

After speaking to a few exchanges, it appears that the low rates circulating are in fact true, but they are only for SELL transactions (people selling $), and appear to be set purely to discourage transactions. If you agree to that price, the exchange generally responds with "but i'm not buying". To get a real measure you must ask for Buy & Sell rate in the same place and hour, and attempt an execution at both rates. If the spread is huge, then both rates are speculative at best. If the exchange refuses either transaction, then the rate is not real.
Due to:
- End of month salary payments
- Eurobonds maturation
- Exchanges on strike
Markers are assumed to be closed.
All rates between now and Monday morning will be ignored to reduce misinformation, loss of income, and chaos.
Refer to Thursday afternoon's exchange rate for the last valid rate before the markets closed.

Johnaudi

Member

Re: Lebanese lira to USD exchange

1600LL / $ just asked moneygram changer

Bid or Ask?