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Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if things were back like before. Why? Because it happened so suddenly, someone closed the usd tap, and that's for a reason, I hope they're figuring out the solution for this reason.
kareem_nasser wrote
As i said before we are still in denial. Some are still planning their travel plans this year as the rate will be back to 1500, others planning their weddings, or how to manage their nonexistent bank dollars (lollars). Give it some time and they will see you are right 100%.

If things are back, people need to know the magic which intervened. :)
Unfortunately covid, protests made famine too close. I am afraid we dont have time...
NuclearVision wroteHonestly, I wouldn't be surprised if things were back like before. Why? Because it happened so suddenly, someone closed the usd tap, and that's for a reason, I hope they're figuring out the solution for this reason.
You are in denial. Lebanon is Cessna with broken fuel tank meter, everybody onboard happy and didnt noticed they passed 440km range, while max range 450km for this plane, they just watch fuel tank meter, and it still shows "full".
Your engine is already starting to sneeze and stopping, altutude is dropping, and you still thinking that it will work back normal on magic fumes?
If you have at least a drop of common sense - look for a place for emergency landing.
P.S. Pilots are with parachutes. They are not worried much about fuel, even might be in denial, but just because they can jump at any moment out and they wont die. So if you listen to them, remember, you dont have parachute, they have.
Things can go back to normal in the long term, get better slowly on short medium term IF the government/BDL have some sort of will for it and IF they take some "manly" decisions without having to be worried about everybody's feelings (especially others in positions of power). But based on the crap that's been going on lately, Salame's ridiculous decisions that don't make any sense, I doubt this will have a happy ending. Politics and sheep mentality are still dominating people's brains even after all what happened since October until today. Lebanese people refuse to change an inch of their toxic behavior in their daily lives (a corrupt society leads to a corrupt leadership not vice versa). This country is a literal free for all where everyone does what ever the hell pleases them. A jungle with streets and buildings. Sorry but this is just the harsh truth, and no things will not get better unless some magic happens (a real revolution, some source for dollars into the market).
That's going to change soon (I hope). Up until now, there has not been a rescue plan presented 80 days into the new government's term except for don't pay the Eurobonds. I saw a blurb on Bloomberg that they wanted to gradually reduce the peg to 2600 to the dollar sometime in 2021, but it seems that plan will go out the window. Unless a viable plan is presented soon, IMF will be the only option available which will make many in parliament unhappy, but I do think a shock to the system here is needed.

Edit: Here is Bloomberg article
It's time they stop completely the apps about ''real'' Lbp value, it's real poison as long as it's not based on official exchange rate, only pure black market mafia dudes are giving fake numbers and others are following while all the country is going to hell
They are covered or not by politicians, Diab should arrest these apps ASAP if we don't want to see our country burn
Arrest apps? Seriously? :)
At current moment Lebanon cannot even block properly some websites, MoT issue regulation/order, and their own hand, Ogero and mobile operators - doesn't comply.
Another thing.
Disinformation can be fought only by refuting, using facts, and creating a source with reliable information.
And, for example, when the market is unstable - just write about it, inform that it is better to not exchange at moment, and refrain from publishing any exchange rates.
A new bdl circular is circulating obligating exchange houses to sell usd at 3200 max
NuclearVision wroteA new bdl circular is circulating obligating exchange houses to sell usd at 3200 max
Yeaaaa sure, they will abide just like they did the last 200 times BDL published a circular. Especially after they bought all these dollars the past week for 3500+ .. They will gladly sell at a loss :)
You probably noticed that the whole thing is a setup by BDL... Didn't you?
I remember that the last circular related to exchange price was vague, and referred to usd buying prices.
this one is more straight forward.
We shall wait and see.
Cheers!
nuclearcat wrote
VincentKeyboard wrote
infiniteloop wrote I will fire employees or keep them at 1500LL salaries instead of losing my precious 50k per month
At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at 1500LBP.
Increasing salaries will increase hyperinflation, your money will depreciate faster than salary increase.

Forcing people to sell 1500LL wont work. I shortened this economical lesson, had to explain woman in shop, who was ranting near the cat food stand:
"If i bought from outside 100 cat food boxes, $1 each, and i sell to people for 1500LL. Then i will go to sarraf to get money for new shipment, how much $ i will get?
People happy, i'm broke."
So go broke. No one forced you to assign prices in USD.
Let's say I have a company called Haddad Chicken. I make chicken products. If I insist on distributing them at dollar prices, eventually no one will afford to buy my products. Sure I can lose sales profit at LBP but it's not the end of the world.
And for your information, this is exactly how this situation was fixed 30 years ago. They soft-banned trading in US dollars and the economy became great. By the mid 90s, people would stalk you to offer you jobs.
When I was 17, I was offered a chance to manage a chain of coffee shops. I said no because I chose to go to university instead. You could find a job at 11PM on a Sunday evening back then.
Your explanation is accurate according to text books but does not apply to Lebanon's real life situation.
But my ideas are exactly what fixed this issue the last time it happened.
We need to separate the dollar from the LBP and stop assigning prices by the dollar. Even at large losses to companies, it needs to happen. They put themselves in this situation by choosing to trade locally by USD. No one forced them to do so and they are not suffering from it.
My statement is the only verified-to-work solution.
There is no excuse for greed and no excuse for Lebanon not to be manufacturing many things and setting prices that are independent of the US dollar.
Good luck trying to pay international suppliers in LBP.
VincentKeyboard wrote
nuclearcat wrote
VincentKeyboard wrote At the current rate of change of dollar price, they will increase salaries every month then. That won't make sense.
The only solution for this is that trading becomes LBP only. Don't accept to buy stock for your store from suppliers who won't charge you at 1500LBP.
Increasing salaries will increase hyperinflation, your money will depreciate faster than salary increase.

Forcing people to sell 1500LL wont work. I shortened this economical lesson, had to explain woman in shop, who was ranting near the cat food stand:
"If i bought from outside 100 cat food boxes, $1 each, and i sell to people for 1500LL. Then i will go to sarraf to get money for new shipment, how much $ i will get?
People happy, i'm broke."
So go broke. No one forced you to assign prices in USD.
Let's say I have a company called Haddad Chicken. I make chicken products. If I insist on distributing them at dollar prices, eventually no one will afford to buy my products. Sure I can lose sales profit at LBP but it's not the end of the world.
And for your information, this is exactly how this situation was fixed 30 years ago. They soft-banned trading in US dollars and the economy became great. By the mid 90s, people would stalk you to offer you jobs.
When I was 17, I was offered a chance to manage a chain of coffee shops. I said no because I chose to go to university instead. You could find a job at 11PM on a Sunday evening back then.
Your explanation is accurate according to text books but does not apply to Lebanon's real life situation.
But my ideas are exactly what fixed this issue the last time it happened.
We need to separate the dollar from the LBP and stop assigning prices by the dollar. Even at large losses to companies, it needs to happen. They put themselves in this situation by choosing to trade locally by USD. No one forced them to do so and they are not suffering from it.
My statement is the only verified-to-work solution.
There is no excuse for greed and no excuse for Lebanon not to be manufacturing many things and setting prices that are independent of the US dollar.
What really fixed it 30 years ago was simply the government issuing shit ton of bonds in 1998. Well we are here today because of that. That's how all the debt started, and well the money wasn't used for anything productive to cover the debts made in the first place (for the love of God nobody please say downtown was rebuilt because that is half the problem). In 2002 where they couldn't build up more debt, Salame came with his magical plans who work on short term but again look where we are now. 30 years and nobody could even complete a simple task: Electricity and an effective collection system. Half the problem is EDL building up shit tons of debt for fuel importing etc .. Note that the dollar reached 3000 LBP back in 1998, exchange rate totally crashed in 91 I guess. The economy wasn't dollarized but still.
VincentKeyboard wrote So go broke. No one forced you to assign prices in USD.
Let's say I have a company called Haddad Chicken. I make chicken products. If I insist on distributing them at dollar prices, eventually no one will afford to buy my products. Sure I can lose sales profit at LBP but it's not the end of the world.
And for your information, this is exactly how this situation was fixed 30 years ago. They soft-banned trading in US dollars and the economy became great. By the mid 90s, people would stalk you to offer you jobs.
When I was 17, I was offered a chance to manage a chain of coffee shops. I said no because I chose to go to university instead. You could find a job at 11PM on a Sunday evening back then.
Your explanation is accurate according to text books but does not apply to Lebanon's real life situation.
But my ideas are exactly what fixed this issue the last time it happened.
We need to separate the dollar from the LBP and stop assigning prices by the dollar. Even at large losses to companies, it needs to happen. They put themselves in this situation by choosing to trade locally by USD. No one forced them to do so and they are not suffering from it.
My statement is the only verified-to-work solution.
There is no excuse for greed and no excuse for Lebanon not to be manufacturing many things and setting prices that are independent of the US dollar.
Its not about losing sales profit, it is about going bankrupt, because you sell literally deeply below cost of product.
In case if i am "haddad chicken" i will rethink my strategy, and either i find way to convert my chickens to something more long-term storable and wait, or i will just sell stock, fire all employees and close until better times.
And most likely, i will sell remaining produce as export with some profit losses, but much less losses than if i sell it inside and move my business to another country.

It was not fixed before, it was patched ugly way, and eventually it was expected to hit even harder. And it did, now.
Lebanon "real life situation" and "lebanon special recipe solutions" is illusion many people have, they think regular laws doesn't apply to them here, while in reality, when they think they fixed some problem "yalla yalla Lebanese way", it turns out just temporary luck and same temporary hack with consequences.
This particular "magic" that lasted for 20 years is simple. Whole Lebanon was burning money that supposed to be deposits of other people (mostly expats, who worked hard outside to earn them) .
That beautiful life that everyone had was at the expense of others. Now the one who unwittingly credited Lebanon is very angry, their money is gone and they need them more than ever.

Lebanon is too small country to produce domestically "near independent from dollar" something more serious than some fruits and vegetables. And even for this, in order to fight new plant diseases, pests and increase the yield - it is necessary to import technologies, chemicals and other things.

Sure, alternatively, you can raise chickens on the balcony and some hydroponics/veggies. But this is more about personal consumption, this will not be an export or any kind of competitive product, you even unlikely will fully sustain your own family needs on such scale. Still, it can improve personal situation with very real looming famine.

So, what are you going to produce that doesnt depend on import?

A strategy to reduce imports is possible, but dont expect miracles, in most cases, it is a very painful and long process.
There is a quick solutionstoo that might improve situation significantly, but these are very tough and unpopular measures, it makes no sense to list them, anyway, nobody decides anything here and nobody will listen in government.
That's unprecise nuclearcat, you can rant all day about how we are spending expacts money, about the magic or whatever but you see, our debt is the result of failure of development, commissions projects, etc. The 40 billions debt is for electricity and not for paychecks. Another god knows where 10 billions. Lebanon is a small country, but that doesn't mean it can't be productive, production is not about surface area... Imagine if, for instance, the country invested in bitcoins, stock, whatever... Or other productive projects.
i want to add, I refuse what you say, that the expats Work hard, and lebanese are lazy and spend the momey or whatever you are implying. In fact, the depositors share responsibility in the kidnapping of their own money. what did they expect after years of incredible interest rates, one should have prudent enough not to keep all savings in such a country.
Bottom-line: The deposits were stolen in majority NOT spent for our happiness as you think.
NuclearVision wrote. The 40 billions debt is for electricity and not for paychecks.
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/lbn/
Check import (especially percentage of specific types of products). Check export. Think, from where difference appeared (and disappeared)?
Its definitely not in electricity only.
Fuel - maybe. Country should be rich, when each member of family have personal, often fuel guzzling car, and most are contemptuous about public transport.
but that doesn't mean it can't be productive, production is not about surface area... Imagine if, for instance, the country invested in bitcoins, stock, whatever... Or other productive projects.
Investing in something like bitcoin and waiting when coins will start ring is called "renteer economy" and is exactly opposite of productive.
For some reason, so many people in Lebanon amuse me with their illusion that if they earned $Xk, then invest somewhere like bitcoin, they will magically receive $X*N k and it is guaranteed income, because some other guy just need their money and will share with them profit. LOL.
This is just another kind of gambling.
Being productive is creating a business, products, this is quite different.
i want to add, I refuse what you say, that the expats Work hard, and lebanese are lazy and spend the momey or whatever you are implying.
Lazy or not, it is THEIR money. Maybe of course they don’t carry coal from wagons, but many of them sacrifice family happiness and lived in an unfriendly atmosphere for years, to get this money.
In fact, the depositors share responsibility in the kidnapping of their own money. what did they expect after years of incredible interest rates, one should have prudent enough not to keep all savings in such a country.
Bottom-line: The deposits were stolen in majority NOT spent for our happiness as you think.
Agree about those who kept them with high interest rate in LBP, but can't say same about those who kept money in "current" accounts and lost money too.

By the way, you advised a couple of words ago to invest in bitcoin, and at the same time you indirectly call stupid those who hoped that banks will invest their money in something real. Double LOL.
The image with the Taanayel halloum cheese is inaccurate. The price shown is for 1KG but the items on the shelf are 0.2KG.

Still expensive though
nuclearcat wrote By the way, you advised a couple of words ago to invest in bitcoin, and at the same time you indirectly call stupid those who hoped that banks will invest their money in something real. Double LOL.
Ironically, Bitcoin would have been more productive that anything they invested in.
Anyway, you're missing the point I'm trying to make and taking my words literally in an attempt to outsmart me.

I hope this situation gets to end soon, the curfew is almost over and people are back on the streets.