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infiniteloop wrote
I want to know which exchange place still use 2000 , even the ABC one which is ''official'' is taking $ at 2300LL and selling at 2420LL
Last week I checked in Hamra and Dora and everyone was taking dollars at 2050. I wanted to buy LBP but I asked a couple of places if they had dollars, they said no (but one of them was willing to sell Euros).
nuclearcat wroteIt will keep climbing to ∞ until purchasing power will be on par with export profit.
But since already suffering export is severely hit by banking restrictions, it is being decimated now, might reach near zero.
You are right, restrictions on transfers make it challenging to pay for raw materials needed, for example paper for printing, cotton for making cloths, spare parts for machines, etc. It may also be challenging to access payments received in USD after exporting and produce.
rolf wrote
nuclearcat wrote I apologize for scaring, but it seems it's time for everyone to prepare individual disaster recovery/resilience plans.
I am stocking up tuna cans, dried beans, buying a winter sleeping bag...
Hmm... what's left? A weapon, some gallons of fuel for emergency heating, water filters?
I rather suggest to arrange ways to escape and place outside to stay, if situation will be too bad. And sure independent(from Lebanon) income source at least for start (freelancing in advance).
nuclearcat wrote I rather suggest to arrange ways to escape and place outside to stay, if situation will be too bad. And sure independent(from Lebanon) income source at least for start (freelancing in advance).
Yes of course, but immigration takes time and is never 100% guaranteed, so this is the contingency plan B in a way!
nuclearcat wrote
rolf wrote
nuclearcat wrote I apologize for scaring, but it seems it's time for everyone to prepare individual disaster recovery/resilience plans.
I am stocking up tuna cans, dried beans, buying a winter sleeping bag...
Hmm... what's left? A weapon, some gallons of fuel for emergency heating, water filters?
I rather suggest to arrange ways to escape and place outside to stay, if situation will be too bad. And sure independent(from Lebanon) income source at least for start (freelancing in advance).
Why do you suggest ways to escape ? unless we will have a war, no need to scare people off. And a war means all region will be under fire. Its not going to happen unless some other country decides to step in.
I believe he is speaking of economic issues, hunger, etc...
Many are going to end up homeless.
rolf wrote
nuclearcat wroteTherefore, the options that are available in larger countries (focusing on the domestic economy for survival, patching up trade balance) - wont work in Lebanon.
Until I see real change which benefits the people (24h electricity for example?) I will not put any hope in the government of Lebanon.

For the people of Lebanon to have a better future, I believe in:
- Guerrilla economy: Struggling for continuing economic success despite all the restrictions, going around banks, etc. Maybe with some foreign help - I think that anyone going down that route can maybe find international support, but it is risky because this support can change pretty quickly.
- To control the development of the petrol extraction. This will be a tricky one but people of Lebanon must have a say and some control in this new development, otherwise there is a risk in the end that resources and revenues from petrol extraction will just end up being used to subjugate, control free people and threaten entrepreneurship and small businesses.
- Current way how government and state structure operating are not ok. Period. Up to lebanese people how to fix that and that should be fixed first, non-violent way (otherwise you will eye years of civil war).
It is useless to propose and discuss any plans for salvation at moment, nobody will hear and implement them. For example, if you will get any aid now - it will be quickly wasted and pocketed and aggravate future recovery.
- Do not count on profit from natural resources. If they are found(high chance there is nothing), at current hydrocarbons prices (due global recession) with a high probability - it is unprofitable yet to retrieve them (deep drilling plus underwater drilling).

While the Lebanese refusing to negotiate with each other, fighting, and cannot find a common language and dont want to be realistic - Lebanon resembles a truck that at maximum speed going into a concrete wall.

Specifically to the topic under discussion - do not hope that your lira will have purchasing power and exchanging to USD will be more and more challenging, look for a way to earn income in so called "fresh" dollars. Many here - IT-knowledgeable, they can find remote job, freelance, etc.
I opened an account the few days ago in Moscow, at Tinkoff Bank (a fully online bank), and it seems that they can provide account for foreigners too, and quickly enough - you only need a passport, visa and of course money.
But specifically this bank most likely I can’t advise everyone - the application is in Russian, but it’s just absolutely great. They offer free sim card also, and tariffs are more than affordable, no more this headache with "burning" number in Lebanon, i might get rid from my lebanese sim totally and use russian number (because mostly it is whatsapp calls and etc).
I'm fed up, i was very sick for 1 week and lost number of my daughter with $100+ balance, cause she was not checking SMS (due spam), and they have very short time to notice that number is not working.
Lack of dollars and increased capital control in banks .. makes suppliers and citzens that have USD payments commitments to go to the black market to have fresh USD dollars on the black market bases that is regulated by supply / demand .. as supply decreases more and more while demand increasing more and more .. Dollars to LBP rate will increase more and more. Here come the International Monetary Fund -IMF imposing on Lebanon to release the official 1520 BDL exchange rate to 50 % ( matching current black market 1520 × 1.5= 2280) as a primary condition to help Lebanon. Rents , Universities Tuitions ... will automatically follow and the LBP will "officially" lose 50 % of its purchasing power. Expect more Lebanese to slip into poverty with minimum wages , still , at 675,000 LBP , correlating now to 337,500 LL of purchasing power.
Some adjustments are inevitable. There are changes in the economy, some painful for sure.
It's hilarious how some people are still falling for the "offer/demand" crap that exchange houses are using for cover up. 99% of these exchangers that I met all over bekaa and beirut areas in the past 3 months can't even spell their own names. Heck I can name several ones selling espresso and nescafe to taxi drivers while doing currency exchange to a random customer (and yes they are legitimate licensed ones). All they do is buy and sell based on how much they bought the stock they already have to avoid losing profit and simply bump up the prices everytime some politican sneezes on national tv as an excuse to make more money. There are 0 scientific calculations involved and I doubt that they even understand how those calculations work in the first place. Whatever disaster happening (including a nuclear apocalypse), a currency does not devaluate 20% in 4 hours for no absolute reason. It's funny how they are always at profit no matter the situation positive or negative, and funnier when the rate magically drops the day the salaries of hezbollah members arrive only in specific areas of the country where these members usually live (to collect the dollars from them at a low rate) then magically booms 30% upwards a couple of days after to make insane profits. This country is a jungle, and nothing would change that unless violence is used and things are forced to change.
Whatever disaster happening (including a nuclear apocalypse), a currency does not devaluate 20% in 4 hours for no absolute reason.
It does, when supply of dollars so limited/low. Supply and demand works irrelevant to knowledge of sellers/exchangers.
As soon as the flow of new deposits decreased, and confidence in the banking system was lost (it has been systematically undermined since 2017), at the same time, many lost their jobs and tried to open their own business, importing another cheap rubbish from China, using dollars from their savings in banks, dollars "mass" is dried up.
Most just don't want to admit it.
Any form of violence will only exacerbate the crisis, because it does not solve anything, it does opposite. Everyone believes that he knows a way to solve the problem (and many think over violence), but they don't have any comprehensive plan does not even understand the situation by 1% and does not want to hear others.
Sorry, such grave situation wont be solved in "yalla yalla" mode and there is no any kind of easy way, such as just "apply violence and everything ok".
vengeance666 wroteIt's hilarious how some people are still falling for the "offer/demand" crap that exchange houses are using for cover up. 99% of these exchangers that I met all over bekaa and beirut areas in the past 3 months can't even spell their own names.
Yeah, I fully agree here. The "offer/demand" thing is complete BS especially in a centralized currency where the market price factor is very small. This isn't bitcoin. Less than 1 in a 1000 people in Lebanon have heard of bitcoin or cryptocurrency before. The whole inflation of the dollar price was obviously dictated by people upstairs.
Either force a 1500 to 1550 range at exchange places or find a way to make the country independent of the dollar. Even the "we import everything" argument is complete BS. Had it been this way, prices would have gone down a bit when the dollar went down to 2100 at one point. People are just greedy.
VincentKeyboard wrote
vengeance666 wroteIt's hilarious how some people are still falling for the "offer/demand" crap that exchange houses are using for cover up. 99% of these exchangers that I met all over bekaa and beirut areas in the past 3 months can't even spell their own names.
Yeah, I fully agree here. The "offer/demand" thing is complete BS especially in a centralized currency where the market price factor is very small. This isn't bitcoin. Less than 1 in a 1000 people in Lebanon have heard of bitcoin or cryptocurrency before. The whole inflation of the dollar price was obviously dictated by people upstairs.
Either force a 1500 to 1550 range at exchange places or find a way to make the country independent of the dollar. Even the "we import everything" argument is complete BS. Had it been this way, prices would have gone down a bit when the dollar went down to 2100 at one point. People are just greedy.
Greedy? I talked with one of food importers, and he explained why everything is going up, what are the challenges importers and supermarkets facing.
Their risks increased(they are forced to get LBP from customers, and exchange rate is volatile, while foreign suppliers need USD), only this factor driving prices is up.
They keep prices as is until it is unbearable and when their profit reaching zero, then they increase it, so it is actually lagging behing exchange rate. Today it dipped down a little, tomorrow it jumps a lot up. There is no fundamental reasons to drop prices, exchange rate will keep climbing, and they cannot drop price just because exchange rate dropped for few days (and actually when it was down, exchange houses stopped selling USD, as nobody want to sell it to them at 2000).
Tell me your logic, why price should decrease?
nuclearcat wrote
VincentKeyboard wrote
vengeance666 wroteIt's hilarious how some people are still falling for the "offer/demand" crap that exchange houses are using for cover up. 99% of these exchangers that I met all over bekaa and beirut areas in the past 3 months can't even spell their own names.
Yeah, I fully agree here. The "offer/demand" thing is complete BS especially in a centralized currency where the market price factor is very small. This isn't bitcoin. Less than 1 in a 1000 people in Lebanon have heard of bitcoin or cryptocurrency before. The whole inflation of the dollar price was obviously dictated by people upstairs.
Either force a 1500 to 1550 range at exchange places or find a way to make the country independent of the dollar. Even the "we import everything" argument is complete BS. Had it been this way, prices would have gone down a bit when the dollar went down to 2100 at one point. People are just greedy.
Greedy? I talked with one of food importers, and he explained why everything is going up, what are the challenges importers and supermarkets facing.
Their risks increased(they are forced to get LBP from customers, and exchange rate is volatile, while foreign suppliers need USD), only this factor driving prices is up.
They keep prices as is until it is unbearable and when their profit reaching zero, then they increase it, so it is actually lagging behing exchange rate. Today it dipped down a little, tomorrow it jumps a lot up. There is no fundamental reasons to drop prices, exchange rate will keep climbing, and they cannot drop price just because exchange rate dropped for few days (and actually when it was down, exchange houses stopped selling USD, as nobody want to sell it to them at 2000).
Tell me your logic, why price should decrease?
Excuse me but this is complete bullshit, it is true they are getting paid in LBP, Howver they are exchanging them to USD i.e. securing the amount.

Besides, their cost structure is not affected by USD the same way they are increasing their prices. 50% of the cost structure is still in LBP like rent, salaries (they drop it), electricity, internet.........

take the California Garden peas can for example, it used to be between 750 to 1250 LBP now it is 2500-2750 LBP. how in the hell do you explain that rise in the price!

this is complete chaos and everybody is trying to get advantage out of the situation.


now lets just wait and see how starving people will react to all of this, i wouldn't blame them.
nuclearcat wrote Greedy? I talked with one of food importers, and he explained why everything is going up, what are the challenges importers and supermarkets facing.
Their risks increased(they are forced to get LBP from customers, and exchange rate is volatile, while foreign suppliers need USD), only this factor driving prices is up.
They keep prices as is until it is unbearable and when their profit reaching zero, then they increase it, so it is actually lagging behing exchange rate. Today it dipped down a little, tomorrow it jumps a lot up. There is no fundamental reasons to drop prices, exchange rate will keep climbing, and they cannot drop price just because exchange rate dropped for few days (and actually when it was down, exchange houses stopped selling USD, as nobody want to sell it to them at 2000).
Tell me your logic, why price should decrease?
If exchange rates are dictating prices, then explain the following:

An itemA costs 1000LL at dollar price 1500. This is 66 Cents or two third of a dollar.
Dollar price goes up to 2500. ItemA price goes up to 2500. That is a complete dollar.

ItemB costs 2000 at dollar price 1500. That is 1.33 dollars.
Dollar price goes up to 2500. Item costs now 2750. This is 1.1 dollars.

Item C cost 2500 at dollar price 1500. This was 1.66 dollars.
Now it costs 5500 at dollar price 2500. That is 2.2 Dollars.

Item D cost 1500 at dollar price 1500. It now still costs 1500.
dsoftware.king wrote take the California Garden peas can for example, it used to be between 750 to 1250 LBP now it is 2500-2750 LBP. how in the hell do you explain that rise in the price!
Note that this is more than double the price even though the USD did not double in price.
nuclearcat wrote
Whatever disaster happening (including a nuclear apocalypse), a currency does not devaluate 20% in 4 hours for no absolute reason.
It does, when supply of dollars so limited/low. Supply and demand works irrelevant to knowledge of sellers/exchangers.
As soon as the flow of new deposits decreased, and confidence in the banking system was lost (it has been systematically undermined since 2017), at the same time, many lost their jobs and tried to open their own business, importing another cheap rubbish from China, using dollars from their savings in banks, dollars "mass" is dried up.
Most just don't want to admit it.
Any form of violence will only exacerbate the crisis, because it does not solve anything, it does opposite. Everyone believes that he knows a way to solve the problem (and many think over violence), but they don't have any comprehensive plan does not even understand the situation by 1% and does not want to hear others.
Sorry, such grave situation wont be solved in "yalla yalla" mode and there is no any kind of easy way, such as just "apply violence and everything ok".

Offer/demand operates on a unified interconnected system that tracks every exchange operation, the amount of each currency in stock/circulation. Based on that data an average price is calculated. The same way as offer/demand works on a stock market but only on a smaller scale. And no it doesn't variate like that. The decline is very systematic and follows a certain pattern which is ridiculous (50 per day then lower 25 at night to buy at lowest possible before spiking next day). Our national currency is being treated like a kilogram of tomatoes from a supermarket, each supermarket has it's own pricing and does whatever they want, because hey it's a FrEe EcOnOmY.

EDIT: and of course that system doesn't exist here. They are selling potato chips and juice no time to make entries.
dsoftware.king wrote
nuclearcat wrote
VincentKeyboard wrote Yeah, I fully agree here. The "offer/demand" thing is complete BS especially in a centralized currency where the market price factor is very small. This isn't bitcoin. Less than 1 in a 1000 people in Lebanon have heard of bitcoin or cryptocurrency before. The whole inflation of the dollar price was obviously dictated by people upstairs.
Either force a 1500 to 1550 range at exchange places or find a way to make the country independent of the dollar. Even the "we import everything" argument is complete BS. Had it been this way, prices would have gone down a bit when the dollar went down to 2100 at one point. People are just greedy.
Greedy? I talked with one of food importers, and he explained why everything is going up, what are the challenges importers and supermarkets facing.
Their risks increased(they are forced to get LBP from customers, and exchange rate is volatile, while foreign suppliers need USD), only this factor driving prices is up.
They keep prices as is until it is unbearable and when their profit reaching zero, then they increase it, so it is actually lagging behing exchange rate. Today it dipped down a little, tomorrow it jumps a lot up. There is no fundamental reasons to drop prices, exchange rate will keep climbing, and they cannot drop price just because exchange rate dropped for few days (and actually when it was down, exchange houses stopped selling USD, as nobody want to sell it to them at 2000).
Tell me your logic, why price should decrease?
Excuse me but this is complete bullshit, it is true they are getting paid in LBP, Howver they are exchanging them to USD i.e. securing the amount.

Besides, their cost structure is not affected by USD the same way they are increasing their prices. 50% of the cost structure is still in LBP like rent, salaries (they drop it), electricity, internet.........

take the California Garden peas can for example, it used to be between 750 to 1250 LBP now it is 2500-2750 LBP. how in the hell do you explain that rise in the price!

this is complete chaos and everybody is trying to get advantage out of the situation.


now lets just wait and see how starving people will react to all of this, i wouldn't blame them.
It depends how product is sold. Often importer give product for supermarket and set his price on it, like this California Garden for example 1000LL. Supermarket adds his 250LL. Let's say he imported it for $0.5, 100000 cans, total value $50k, and expect to make profit $16666 (250LL per can).
Now take a look to lira value. Today it is 2450LL/1$ and climbing, and when he gives it for supermarket, this batch might stay on shelf for 3-4 month, and he CANT CHANGE PRICE! This means he have to give it in advance, that at 4th month product still will be sold with profit.
Yes, some products price structure is different, like you said taxes and local expenses are large %, those products might keep price lower, but some products are not like this.

Also sometimes importers are plain simple (especially if they have exclusive rights on product), and they just demand from supermarket USD payments. This time supermarket is screwed, he have to put price, and he can't keep it changing, people tend to get angry more from daily changing price, than from just once set high price, plus changing price is expensive, in accounting and merchandising matters.

Additional burden that you often need wasta or pay more to get this USD, they are not freely available in large amounts.

And starving people can revolt, true, and if order is not restored, it will aggravate their situation even more. Nobody will care if millions lebanese starve and die, look to Africa, whole world will turn blind eye, if u dont have value for them and even problematic, cause busy ripping throats of each other and cannot manage order.
vengeance666 wrote Offer/demand operates on a unified interconnected system that tracks every exchange operation, the amount of each currency in stock/circulation. Based on that data an average price is calculated. The same way as offer/demand works on a stock market but only on a smaller scale. And no it doesn't variate like that. The decline is very systematic and follows a certain pattern which is ridiculous (50 per day then lower 25 at night to buy at lowest possible before spiking next day). Our national currency is being treated like a kilogram of tomatoes from a supermarket, each supermarket has it's own pricing and does whatever they want, because hey it's a FrEe EcOnOmY.

EDIT: and of course that system doesn't exist here. They are selling potato chips and juice no time to make entries.
Demand based pricing works in chaotic systems as well. Unfortunately, and it works very ugly way.
It is increasing from rumors and shocks , people are rushing to sell their LBP to USD in afraid that it will raise more tomrrow ( MEA USD tickets shift & retreat later to LBP) and the loop will continue more USD will be pulled on each shock less supply higher demand = increase.

Added to the the American administrstion & more pressure on Lebanon to accept Palestinians refugee settlement , so called the Century Deal, Lebanon has been rejecting that since a long time. Also the pressure the Lebanese banking system due to the cosideration of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization by American Administration. Lebanese Canadian Bank , than Jamal Trust Bank .. & what is next ?

Finally , in a dollarized economy that relies on imports not domestic production , USD will always control us.